Beaware of Loadshedding Fake News Alert!
Loadshedding Fake News Alert! Beware of fake load shedding circulating circulating on social media. South Africa celebrated two months without load shedding in April and May 2024, marking the longest period without power cuts since 2021. Eskom, the country’s power utility, last reported more than 51 days without load shedding between 5 December 2021 and 2 February 2022.
Generation Operational Recovery Plan: A Success
Eskom credited the success of its Generation Operational Recovery Plan, which began in March 2023, for the improved performance and reliability of its generation fleet. The plan included:
- Accelerating planned maintenance
- Increasing preventative maintenance
- Major plant refurbishments
- Life extension projects
Performance and Reliability Improvements
Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena emphasized the positive impact of the Generation Recovery Plan, stating, “Our generation availability continues to perform well as a result of the Generation Recovery Plan that commenced in March 2023, as well as our intensive planned maintenance.” Mokwena also highlighted that unplanned outages are averaging at 12,500 MW, below the anticipated levels for the winter outlook. Four of Eskom’s power stations are performing with an energy availability factor (EAF) above 70%, contributing to a year-to-date EAF of 60.73%.
Decreased Electricity Demand
A significant factor in the reduced need for load shedding is the 6% decrease in electricity demand in 2024 compared to 2023. This reduction is partly due to the widespread installation of rooftop solar systems by businesses and households. During winter, South Africa typically experiences an electricity demand increase of around 6,000 MW compared to summer.
Winter 2024 Outlook
In its Winter 2024 Outlook presentation, Eskom indicated that South Africans might experience load shedding this winter, but it is expected to be limited to stage 2. Eskom CEO Dan Marokane explained that the likely risk scenario, which assumes an average of 15,500 MW of breakdowns, suggests load shedding will remain at stage 2 or below. In the worst-case scenario, with breakdowns reaching 17,000 MW, load shedding could escalate to stage 5.
Ongoing Challenges and Future Outlook
Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa cautioned that load shedding is not entirely behind us, stating, “We are still working on the reliability of Eskom’s generating units, and that’s why you can’t speak with great confidence that load shedding is behind us.” This acknowledgement highlights the ongoing efforts required to ensure the stability and reliability of South Africa’s electricity supply.
Conclusion
While the recent two-month period without load shedding is a significant achievement, Eskom and the South African government recognize the need for continued vigilance and improvement in the power sector. The Generation Operational Recovery Plan’s success, combined with reduced electricity demand and increased renewable energy adoption, offers hope for a more stable and reliable electricity supply in the future. However, the potential for load shedding remains, especially during periods of high demand and unforeseen breakdowns.
The two-month period without load shedding in April and May 2024 was primarily due to the successful implementation of Eskom’s Generation Operational Recovery Plan, which started in March 2023. This plan included:
– Accelerating planned maintenance.
– Increasing preventative maintenance.
– Major plant refurbishments.
– Life extension projects.
The Generation Operational Recovery Plan is a strategic initiative by Eskom aimed at improving the performance and reliability of its generation fleet. Implemented in March 2023, the plan focuses on:
– Accelerating planned maintenance.
– Increasing preventative maintenance.
– Major plant refurbishments.
– Life extension projects.
For Winter 2024, Eskom’s outlook indicates that load shedding might still occur but is expected to be limited to stage 2. According to Eskom CEO Dan Marokane, the likely risk scenario, which assumes an average of 15,500 MW of breakdowns, suggests load shedding will remain at stage 2 or below. In a worst-case scenario, with breakdowns reaching 17,000 MW, load shedding could escalate to stage 5. However, ongoing efforts to improve the reliability of Eskom’s generating units and reduced electricity demand due to increased adoption of renewable energy sources provide a positive outlook.